Election 2024: The Economist's Shocking Predictions!

The Economist's Model Predicts The Chances Of Each Major Presidential Candidate Winning Each State And The Overall Electoral College.

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Developed With Columbia University Scholars, The Forecast Combines Polls With Data On The Economy, Voting Patterns, And Demographics.

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The Model Constructs Thousands Of Scenarios With Varying Vote Shares And Polling Biases.

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Scenarios That Closely Match Polls And Fundamental Data Are More Likely To Be Generated.

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The Win Probabilities Show The Percentage Of Scenarios Each Candidate Wins.

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On August 15th, The Model Was Updated With Kamala Harris As The Democratic Nominee.

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Methodological Adjustments Included Changes In Likely-Voter Screens And Polling Accuracy.

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The Updated Model Was Rerun For The Historical Trump Vs. Biden Race.

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